A United Ireland Plebiscite Should Not Transform Into 'A Repeat of Brexit', Experts Caution

A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Debates range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."

Call for Broader Debate

Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."